UFC Vegas 109 Preview: Finding Value in a Card of Heavy Favorites

UFC Vegas 109, also known as UFC on ESPN 72, is shaping up to be one of the most unusual fight cards of the year. With only two of the 12 scheduled matchups featuring betting favorites at -200 or lower, the odds are heavily skewed, making it a challenge for bettors to find palatable lines. This week, we'll dive into some creative betting strategies to find value in a card full of heavy favorites and intriguing underdogs.

The Main Picks For this card, the best value may be found in a parlay that combines a few of the more confident picks.

• Anthony Hernandez (-310): Hernandez's superior cardio and five-round experience give him a significant edge over opponent Roman Dolidze. While Dolidze possesses immense power, the belief is that Hernandez can weather any early storm and overwhelm his opponent as the fight progresses and Dolidze begins to tire.

• Lucindo-Hill Goes the Distance (-550): The finish rate for women's fights in the UFC has been historically low, hovering just above 35% in 2025. Angela Hill is tied for the most decision wins in UFC women’s strawweight history with nine, and Lucindo has gone the distance in five of her six UFC bouts. The numbers strongly suggest this fight will go to the judges.

• Uros Medic To Win (-360): Uros "The Doctor" Medic has an unblemished record of finishing all of his 10 professional wins. His opponent, Gilbert Urbina, has been finished in all three of his UFC appearances. The odds heavily favor a Medic victory by stoppage, making this a strong pick.

Christian Rodriguez vs. Andre Fili This featherweight matchup is a classic clash of generations, with eight years separating Rodriguez and Fili. Fili, a high-volume striker, has been unable to put together a winning streak since 2019. While he lands a decent number of strikes, he is also known to be hittable. This is where the more accurate and powerful Rodriguez, who chains his fists, knees, and elbows together, can take advantage. The betting line for Rodriguez to win is much more favorable when combined with the fight going over 1.5 rounds, as his last four wins have all gone the distance.

Julija Stoliarenko vs. Gabrielle Fernandes Julija Stoliarenko, a significant underdog at +325, is a one-dimensional submission threat. Ten of her eleven professional wins have come via submission, making her a live underdog if the fight goes to the ground. Her opponent, Gabrielle Fernandes, has never been finished professionally, but she has a tendency to absorb more strikes than she lands and has a very low takedown success rate. For Stoliarenko to win, she must get the fight to the ground, where she has a clear path to victory.

Cody Brundage vs. Eric McConico This late-notice, up-a-division co-main event between Cody Brundage and Eric McConico is one of the most bizarre matchups on the card. Brundage, the leanest favorite on the card, has proven he can get wins inside the Octagon with impressive stoppages of Julian Marquez and Zachary Reese. McConico, on the other hand, has shown very little in his limited UFC experience, having landed only six total strikes in his last fight. Brundage's grappling and power should be more than enough to grind out a win.