UFC 317 Main Event Preview: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira – A Lightweight Crown Awaits

International Fight Week culminates this Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena with UFC 317, headlined by a tantalizing lightweight championship clash: the undefeated former featherweight king Ilia Topuria takes on the legendary former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira. While the absence of former champion Islam Makhachev might stir some disappointment, the high-level fireworks expected from Topuria and Oliveira promise a spectacular main event. The main card also features two excellent flyweight bouts, a compelling lightweight tilt between Beneil Dariush and Renato “Money” Moicano, and a bantamweight showcase, ensuring a packed night of action.

The Main Event: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira

UFC Lightweight Championship

• Ilia Topuria (16-0, 8-0 UFC) vs. Charles Oliveira (35-10, 23-10 UFC)

• BETTING ODDS: Topuria (-500), Oliveira (+375)

Ilia Topuria: The Unstoppable Force Representing both Georgia and Spain, Ilia Topuria's ascent through the UFC ranks has been nothing short of meteoric. Since his UFC debut in 2020, "El Matador" has systematically dismantled every opponent with a fundamental yet devastating pressure-heavy approach. Within months, his ridiculously high upside became evident, highlighted by the brutal knockout of Damon Jackson, which showcased flashes of what would become one of the sport's best boxing games. He further proved his elite grappling defense by outmaneuvering submission specialists like Ryan Hall and Bryce Mitchell en route to finishes.

The Mitchell win propelled Topuria into contention, and his sole fight of 2023 against Josh Emmett solidified his status among the featherweight elite. Topuria displayed remarkable control, knowing precisely when to dial back or unleash his aggression, delivering a comprehensive performance that left Emmett with no answers. This set the stage for his 2024 showdowns against all-time greats Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway. Topuria’s dominant victories over both legends, knocking out Volkanovski in the second round and Holloway in the third, were startlingly effortless, propelling him into elite company. While some wished to see him continue his reign at featherweight, the challenges of making the 145-pound cut have prompted his move to lightweight, seeking a new challenge, ideally against Islam Makhachev. However, with Makhachev's recent move to welterweight, Topuria now faces Charles Oliveira for the vacant lightweight strap.

Charles Oliveira: The Resurgent Submission King

Charles "Do Bronx" Oliveira has earned his place among the all-time greats through a career defined by resilience and relentless evolution, even if his path to the top was longer and more arduous than most. Bursting onto the UFC scene in 2010 at just 20 years old, Oliveira immediately captivated with an electric submission victory over Darren Elkins, marking him as a thrilling prospect. However, early aggressive matchmaking led to an inconsistent career, with impressive wins often followed by crushing defeats against seasoned veterans, seemingly eroding his confidence. By 2017, after being overwhelmed by Paul Felder, Oliveira appeared to be relegated to a "submission artist" who could conjure flashes of brilliance but lacked the mental fortitude for title contention.

Yet, a turning point arrived in 2019. After three quick submission wins in 2018, his fight against David Teymur marked the moment everything clicked. Oliveira, on the verge of crumbling as the situation got tough, astonishingly refused to break, charging back for a submission victory. This newfound resolve fueled an incredible 11-fight winning streak, culminating in him becoming the UFC's first post-Khabib Nurmagomedov lightweight champion in 2021. His three-fight title reign was marked by excitement and feel-good moments. At his best, Oliveira masterfully leverages his grappling threat to become a far more dangerous striker, pouring on offense or utilizing his ground reputation to recover on his back. Recent losses to Islam Makhachev (2022) and Arman Tsarukyan (April 2024), where opponents found success on the feet before engaging on the ground, show potential vulnerabilities. However, the Brazilian's high-level game remains intact, bookending his Tsarukyan loss with dominant wins over Beneil Dariush and Michael Chandler.

The Matchup: A Clash of Styles and Strengths. The betting odds of Topuria (-500) and Oliveira (+375) reflect the consensus that Topuria is a significant favorite. However, there are intriguing elements at play. Topuria appears to be on the level of Makhachev and Tsarukyan, but his move up in weight class presents a new challenge. He will be undersized at lightweight and has historically faced the most difficulty against taller opponents, notably nearly being knocked out by Jai Herbert in a previous lightweight bout in 2022. Yet, "El Matador" famously stormed back in that fight, obliterating Herbert for one of his most vicious career knockouts. This underscores Topuria's incredible resilience: giving him trouble is one thing, but actually beating him is another entirely.

Oliveira possesses a unique advantage with his unparalleled submission game; if things go south for Topuria, Oliveira can pounce on an opportunity like almost no other fighter. However, given Oliveira’s tendency to invite opponents to land strikes, it's difficult to envision Topuria not breaking the fight open quickly with his elite boxing and power. The expert prediction for this captivating clash leans towards Ilia Topuria via first-round knockout, anticipating his striking precision and finishing ability to secure the vacant lightweight title.

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