Playoff Picture Intensifies as NASCAR Cup Series Heads to Iowa Speedway

With only four races remaining in the regular season, the stakes are incredibly high as the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Iowa Speedway for the Iowa Corn 350 Powered by Ethanol (3:30 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App). The championship battle is intensely competitive, with just 20 points separating the top four drivers—Hendrick Motorsports teammates Chase Elliott, William Byron, and Kyle Larson, along with Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin. This is the smallest margin for the top four at this point since 2012, setting the stage for an exciting conclusion to the regular season.

While the championship is still undecided, the competition for the last playoff spots is equally intense. RFK Racing teammates Chris Buescher and Ryan Preece are on opposite sides of the playoff bubble, with Buescher holding a 42-point advantage over Preece, who is just outside the top 16. Although this is the largest gap on the bubble this season, Iowa is no place for complacency. The Next Gen era is known for surprise "win-and-in" drivers rising from below the elimination line in the final month, with three drivers who were above the cutoff at this point last year failing to reach the playoffs.

Despite the unpredictability, Racing Insights' predictive model favors Christopher Bell to secure his first victory since his three-race winning streak in the spring. The No. 20 driver has a strong track record on short tracks, with nine top-10 finishes in his last 11 starts and a gritty fourth-place finish at Iowa last year.

Bell's initial dominance in the season transitioned into a period of increased competition, as five of the last seven oval races saw first-time winners. This weekend, attention turns to a track that requires composure and experience. The previous six short-track winners have all been over 30 years old, and in six of the last nine short-track races, the driver leading the most laps secured the victory.

Experienced drivers aim to take advantage of this trend. Denny Hamlin, known as the tour's short-track expert with 15 victories, is eager to recover from an unusual mistake here last season. Brad Keselowski, who began the year slowly, has regained momentum with six top-10 finishes in his last 10 races. In contrast, Kyle Busch is confronting a difficult period, enduring one of the toughest phases of his career with no top-10 finishes in his last 11 short-track races, and will be using a backup car following a practice crash.

Keep an eye on other drivers such as Ryan Blaney, last year's winner in Iowa, and Chase Elliott, who tops the series with an average finish of 10.14. Josh Berry, who clinched a playoff spot with his victory in Las Vegas earlier this year, is returning to a track where he performed well last season, leading for 32 laps before ending in seventh place.

Iowa's fresh pavement and the strategic demands of tire management will make for a true chess match. With the playoff picture hanging in the balance, every lap of today's race will be crucial.

The playoff picture is heating up as the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Iowa Speedway for the Iowa Corn 350 Powered by Ethanol. With just four races left in the regular season, the top drivers are in a tight battle for the Regular Season Championship, and the fight for the final playoff spots is more intense than ever.

The race will be broadcast today, Sunday, August 3rd, at 3:30 p.m. ET on the USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, and the NBC Sports App.

Here are the projected results for the Iowa Corn 350, according to Racing Insights' advanced statistical formula, which incorporates track history, recent performance, team data, and pit-crew data.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE IOWA CORN 350

| Finish | Car No. | Driver |

| 1 | 20 | Christopher Bell |

| 2 | 24 | William Byron |

| 3 | 9 | Chase Elliott |

| 4 | 12 | Ryan Blaney |

| 5 | 11 | Denny Hamlin |

| 6 | 48 | Alex Bowman |

| 7 | 6 | Brad Keselowski |

| 8 | 5 | Kyle Larson |

| 9 | 22 | Joey Logano |

| 10 | 17 | Chris Buescher |

| 11 | 23 | Bubba Wallace |

| 12 | 19 | Chase Briscoe |

| 13 | 21 | Josh Berry |

| 14 | 45 | Tyler Reddick |

| 15 | 1 | Ross Chastain |

| 16 | 77 | Carson Hocevar |

| 17 | 54 | Ty Gibbs |

| 18 | 7 | Justin Haley |

| 19 | 99 | Daniel Suárez |

| 20 | 2 | Austin Cindric |

| 21 | 71 | Michael McDowell |

| 22 | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |

| 23 | 3 | Austin Dillon |

| 24 | 60 | Ryan Preece |

| 25 | 34 | Todd Gilliland |

| 26 | 4 | Noah Gragson |

| 27 | 43 | Erik Jones |

| 28 | 16 | AJ Allmendinger |

| 29 | 8 | Kyle Busch |

| 30 | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek |

| 31 | 88 | Shane van Gisbergen |

| 32 | 38 | Zane Smith |

| 33 | 10 | Ty Dillon |

| 34 | 41 | Cole Custer |

| 35 | 35 | Riley Herbst |

| 36 | 51 | Cody Ware |

| 37 | 66 | Joey Gase |