NBA Cup Quarterfinal Preview: Breaking Down Every Matchup

The path to Las Vegas gets real as the 2025 NBA Cup quarterfinals tip off this week. Eight teams, single elimination, and a chance to move one step closer to the Cup crown. Here’s your full matchup breakdown.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Heat at Magic – 6 PM ET

Orlando Loses Wagner at the Worst Possible Time

Orlando waited nearly a month to get Paolo Banchero back… only to lose Franz Wagner two days later. Wagner’s high ankle sprain sidelines one of the East’s steadiest scorers — 22.7 PPG, improved 3-point shooting, and the engine behind Orlando’s strong start.

Without him, Banchero must take over immediately. Desmond Bane, Jalen Suggs, and rookie Anthony Black will need to stretch Miami’s defense and help fill the scoring gap.

The Heat arrive struggling (1–4 in their last five), but the expected returns of Tyler Herro and Davion Mitchell could stabilize their lineup. Miami now steps into a matchup that suddenly feels far more winnable.

Context: Wagner scored 32 in Orlando’s one-point win vs Miami just last week.

Knicks at Raptors – 8:30 PM ET

Can New York’s Offense Travel?

The Knicks enter the quarters with one of the best offenses in the league — top three in efficiency, top four in 3-pointers made. But the big concern: they drop to a middle-of-the-pack offense on the road, where they’re just 3-6.

Toronto has cooled off dramatically after a 13–1 surge, dropping five of its last six. To make matters worse, they’re still without RJ Barrett as he recovers from a knee sprain.

The variable here is Karl-Anthony Towns, whose calf injury makes him questionable. OG Anunoby is back and looked solid in his return, but Towns’ presence (or absence) changes New York’s spacing and inside scoring in a big way.

This matchup has the feel of an early playoff preview — and it might end up being one.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Suns at Thunder – 7:30 PM ET

OKC Is Playing at a Historic Level

Oklahoma City has been a machine. At 23–1, they’ve joined the 2015–16 Warriors and the 1969–70 Knicks as the only teams to start this hot. Their +16.1 point differential is tracking to break records, and they’ve won 15 straight despite several key injuries.

Phoenix nearly stunned them in the group stage, pulling within one late. But then Shai Gilgeous-Alexander closed the door with 10 points in the final minutes — a familiar script all season long.

If Phoenix keeps it close again, it may only unleash a Thunder team that has dominated clutch moments better than anyone in the league.

Spurs at Lakers – 10 PM ET

San Antonio Without Wemby Faces a Tough Challenge

San Antonio played the Lakers tough earlier this season, nearly tying the game in the final second. But this time, they’ll be without Victor Wembanyama, whose calf strain has kept him out since mid-November.

That places the defensive burden on Luke Kornet, who has filled in admirably and helped the Spurs go 7–2 without Wemby. Still, containing the duo of Luka Doncic and LeBron James is a completely different challenge.

L.A. ended the Spurs’ earlier upset hopes with a massive 21–0 run to close the game. And with both Luka and LeBron active this time, San Antonio must decide how to defend — let Luka score, or let him facilitate? Neither is a great option.

LOOKING AHEAD: VEGAS ON THE HORIZON

The East features two matchups that could mirror potential Round 1 playoff series. Both Miami–Orlando and Knicks–Raptors have the ingredients for long-term rivalries.

In the West, the semifinals could deliver fireworks:

• A Thunder–Lakers showdown feels inevitable

• A Holmgren vs Wembanyama rematch remains alive if the Spurs advance and Wemby returns

• Phoenix is the long shot but proved they can hang with OKC

The quarterfinal stage is set — and for the first time all season, every possession truly matters.