Is Paul Skenes' Historic Start Being Underrated?

The Undeniable Truth: Paul Skenes is More Than Just a Star

It’s easy to look at Paul Skenes and think you know the story. He was a top overall pick, a phenom, and a star from day one. He’s the reigning National League Rookie of the Year, an All-Star Game starter in both of his first two seasons, and a constant presence in the sports media world.¹ His excellence feels, for lack of a better word, routine. He was expected to be great, and he has been. End of story.

But that’s where the real story begins. The sheer, sustained dominance of Skenes’s early career is so profound that it might be underappreciated. When you dig beneath the headlines, you find that Skenes isn't just living up to the hype—he is crafting a start to a career that is literally unprecedented in the modern era of baseball.

An Unprecedented Start to a Career

Skenes, with a 1.99 ERA over 46 starts, is set for his 47th career start. This is the best ERA by any pitcher in their first 46 starts since the Live Ball Era began in 1920. He is the only starting pitcher in the last 105 years to start with an ERA under 2.00, surpassing legends like MVP Vida Blue and Dwight Gooden.

Lowest ERA, first 46 starts, since 1920

• 1.99 // Skenes

• 2.03 // Vida Blue

• 2.23 // Jerry Koosman

• 2.27 // Dwight Gooden

• 2.28 // Bill Singer

• 2.28 // Howie Pollet

• 2.31 // Orel Hershiser

• 2.33 // Gary Peters

• 2.34 // Lon Warneke

• 2.39 // José Fernández

This incredible performance holds up under more advanced scrutiny. Using metrics like Run Expectancy (RE/24), which measures a pitcher's impact on scoring, Skenes ranks No. 2 all-time since 1920 and a dominant No. 1 since the end of World War II. He is also a top performer in Win Probability Added, showing that his contributions go beyond pure stats and translate directly to his team’s success. Regardless of how you slice the data, Skenes is having one of the greatest, if not the greatest, start to a pitching career in a century.

The Baffling Win-Loss Record Paradox

Perhaps the only statistical oddity in Skene's career so far is his 6-8 record this season. This glaring number, however, is not a reflection of his performance but rather a testament to the anemic offense of the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have one of the weakest lineups in baseball. Skenes has been a victim of low run support, with a notable example being a complete game loss where he gave up just one run.

The paradox of his record makes one of his most incredible stats even more remarkable: Even when Skenes loses, he is historically good. The OPS he allows in his 11 career losses is the best mark of any pitcher in the last century with at least 10 losses. To put it in perspective, the opposition's performance against Skenes in his losses is better than what many pitchers allow in their wins. What he is doing simply is not done in modern baseball.

Lowest OPS allowed in losses (min 10 L’s), since 1920

• .574 // Skenes (2024-25)

• .622 // Ray Fisher (1920)

• .673 // Charles Wensloff (1943-48)

• .689 // Justin Duchscherer (2001-10)

• .689 // Elmer Ponder (1920-21)

Sustaining the Unprecedented

The question now is not if Skenes is great, but if he can maintain this historic level of performance. History shows us just how difficult that is. Looking at the careers of other pitchers who had incredible starts, such as Vida Blue and Dwight Gooden, we see a cautionary tale. Blue, after his MVP-winning season, struggled with injuries and off-field issues. Gooden, after an electrifying start that saw him post a near-identical ERA to Skenes in his first 46 starts, saw his career tragically derailed by off-field struggles.

Skenes's career is on a Hall of Fame trajectory, but the challenge now is to avoid the pitfalls that befell some of his predecessors. With his consistent dominance across all pitching metrics—including a top-five strikeout rate and the lowest opponent batting average since his debut—Skenes has all the tools. He has shown no signs of vulnerability and has performed with remarkable consistency, even his minor adjustments in pitch usage resulting in the same elite results.

He is not just a star pitcher; he is a generational talent rewriting the record books with every start. It’s not routine, it’s not normal, and it’s a story that deserves our full attention.