2025 NBA Finals Preview: Thunder vs. Pacers - Game 1

Everything is set for the grand finale between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers, arguably the two most recognizable teams of these playoffs.

Two of the ten smallest television markets in the NBA have made it to the Finals. This might lead to headlines like "the least-watched Finals in the last ten years" or "parity comes at a cost for Adam Silver." We'll leave those analyses to others and focus on what truly matters: basketball. And on the court, the series between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers promises to be very interesting, although it starts with an apparent disparity on paper.

When is Game 1?

• Date: June 5, 2025, 20:30 ET.

• Venue: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

• NBA Final Contest Game 1. Participate Now: Pick & Win

  
  

The Two Most Radical Approaches

The Finals feature the two most recognizable playing styles from both conferences, with the exception of the Cleveland Cavaliers, who ultimately succumbed to the Indiana Pacers. Will the team that remains most faithful to its style prevail, or will the one that adapts best to the context's needs emerge victorious?

Setting the Tone

OKC is the favorite. As such, they must try to impose their game from the first minute of the series. There hasn't been a game in these playoffs where they've managed to establish their identity and the opponent found a lasting answer. Only Denver managed to keep them away from that version long enough to make several games close and win three out of seven.

It's very difficult to sustain the defensive level that the Thunder impose at their most intense peaks. But the runs generated by those whirlwinds of pressure, steals, and transitions eventually bury their opponents. Most of their victories are convincing.

However, the Nuggets also forced them to develop competitive grit in tight finishes. In those moments, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams have shed doubts to finally become difference-makers, because Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is (almost) always there.

Thunder's Last Five Games:

• Win vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (124-94)

• Win @ Minnesota Timberwolves (128-126)

• Loss @ Minnesota Timberwolves (101-143)

• Win vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (118-103)

• Win vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (114-88)

  
  

The Final Boss

The Pacers have reached the Finals after being underdogs in two of their three series. Some even doubted them against the Milwaukee Bucks, despite the obvious difference between the two teams. The Cavaliers and Knicks experienced firsthand a tremendously mature approach from Indiana. Their blistering offense has been complemented by a defensive effort that wins games despite not being dominant.

Rick Carlisle's team has been able to maintain extremely high intensity throughout the playoffs thanks to their style and roster depth. This is where they will meet their match. Both the Thunder and Pacers have significantly benefited from their benches, and this could be a key factor.

Furthermore, Indiana hasn't faced a defensive challenge like the one they're about to encounter. Tyrese Haliburton, who found some comfort in certain stretches against Mikal Bridges (though he also struggled to overcome Mitchell Robinson and even Karl-Anthony Towns on switches), will now face Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace. These are much more physical defenders than he's seen so far.

Regarding the defense on Shai, they will likely opt for a similar approach to what was seen with Giannis Antetokounmpo, letting him score while preventing others from getting involved. At least until they see that the Canadian point guard is beating them single-handedly.

Pacers' Last Five Games:

• Win vs. New York Knicks (125-108)

• Loss @ New York Knicks (94-111)

• Win vs. New York Knicks (130-121)

• Loss @ New York Knicks (100-106)

• Win vs. New York Knicks (114-109)

  
  

Game Keys

These are the aspects that could decide the match.

Players to Watch:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: In full maturity. Seems unflappable. He's going to have his game nine out of ten times, and nothing can stop him. Additionally, during these playoffs, he has also demonstrated elite-level ball distribution. The best player in the series and, probably, in all the playoffs.

  
  

• Tyrese Haliburton: There are games where the Pacers' point guard prefers to take a backseat and let his teammates carry the load. But Indiana will need his best version to appear at least in segments of every game to have a say in the series. A perfect Haliburton whirlwind can knock out anyone, and his ball security heavily influences his team's chances.

  
  

• Jalen Williams: As a defender for Siakam and as a secondary offensive creator. Indiana doesn't have many defenders to match J Dub's size and weight. He's been a worthy sidekick to Shai against Minnesota, and this is his opportunity to make a definitive statement as OKC's second-best offensive player.

  
  

• Pascal Siakam: If Haliburton needs to protect the ball, Siakam needs to do so twice as much. His post-up game is an undeniable source of mid-range points. But it's also an invitation for the Thunder's defense to swarm the ball once he loses sight of the rim and court perspective. Once Tyrese releases the ball, Siakam must be the manager of everything.

  
  

Small Formats:

The Thunder will likely start with Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. However, it's most likely they won't share much court time. The German played only 14 minutes in a previous game where Chet wasn't available. Mark Daigneault isn't afraid to play small or with only one center. Hartenstein's rebounding prowess and Chet's perimeter offense can do damage separately and adapt better to the Pacers' speed.

Benches to the Power:

At this stage, one might expect teams to shorten their rotations. But nothing could be further from the truth. Both continue to leverage eight or nine players every night. Will these bench advantages cancel each other out, or will one team's depth prevail?

Game Rosters

How both teams arrive at the game.

Oklahoma City Thunder

• Possible Starting Five: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein.

• Bench: Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace, Jaylin Williams, Alex Caruso, Dillon Jones, Ajay Mitchell, Ousmane Dieng, Kenrich Williams.

• Doubts: –

• Confirmed Absences: Nikola Topic

  
  

Indiana Pacers

• Possible Starting Five: Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam, Myles Turner.

• Bench: T.J. McConnell, Ben Mathurin, Obi Toppin, Jarace Walker, Thomas Bryant, Ben Sheppard, James Johnson, Toney Bradley.

• Doubts: –

• Confirmed Absences: Isaiah Jackson.

  
  

Thunder vs. Pacers Prediction

The Paycom Center has been one of the few strongholds that have truly capitalized on home-court advantage. The Thunder have won eight of their nine home games in the playoffs. And starting as favorites, it's normal to expect an explosive start to set the pace. Anything less than a win would be a surprise.

Key Stats: These data points summarize how each team has performed in the playoffs.

Recent Head-to-Head:

OKC Thunder swept the regular season series. Moreover, they did so without Chet Holmgren in either game and without Alex Caruso in one. These Indiana Pacers are a different team now, but the game played at the end of March (132-111) can still serve as a benchmark.

What do you think? Will the Indiana Pacers show a competitive version of themselves? Will the Thunder demonstrate their presumed superiority? Tell us in the comments!